Blog Archives

Caps Advanced Stats Player of the Month: November 2014

In October 2014, Alex Ovechkin took home the Caps advanced stats Player of the Month award.

For this month, I’ve changed up the categories a little bit. Here are the categories

1) Relative shot attempts-The amount of shot attempts in the Caps favor when a player is on the ice vs. when he’s off the ice. The higher the number, the better

2) SA For/60-Caps shot attempts for per 60 minutes of ice time for an individual player. The higher the number, the better.

3) SA Against/60-Opponent shot attempts per 60 minutes of ice time for an individual player. The lower the number the better.

4) Zone starts-The percentage of shifts a player starts in the offensive zone. The lower the number, the “tougher” the minutes a player is being assigned.

5) Quality of Competition-The quality of competition a player is skating against, measured by TOI of his opponents.

Scoring System: For categories 1, 4, and 5, the player in first place will get 5 points, second place-4, down to 5th place getting 1. For categories 2 and 3, the points awarded are halved, so first place gets 2.5, second place 2.0 and so on. This is because categories 1 through 3 are all possession-based, so it may be a little redundant to award 5 points for all of them.

A player has to have skated 50+ minutes in November to have qualified.

Relative shot attempts

Player Relative SA% Points
Wilson +5.51% 5
Green +4.63% 4
Ovechkin +4.04% 3
Burakovsky +3.24% 2
Johansson +2.85% 1

 

Shot attempts For/60

Player SA For/60 Points
Wilson 62.01 2.5
Ovechkin 61.82 2
Johansson 60.55 1.5
Backstrom 58.99 1
Kuznetsov 58.84 0.5

 

Shot attempts Against/60

Player SA Against/60 Points
Niskanen 50.37 2.5
Fehr 50.58 2
Green 50.93 1.5
Latta 51.87 1
Wilson 51.97 0.5

 

Zone Starts

Player Zone Start % Points
Latta 40.91% 5
Fehr 42.22% 4
Chimera 42.24% 3
Ward 45.24% 2
Beagle 50.96% 1

 

Quality of Competition

Player QOC TOI% Points
Ovechkin 30.11% 5
Backstrom 30.05% 4
Wilson 30.03% 3
Orpik 29.39% 2
Carlson 28.89% 1

 

Final Standings

Player Rank Points
Green 5 5.5
Latta 3 (tie) 6
Fehr 3 (tie) 6
Ovechkin 2 10
Wilson 1 11

 

The Caps advanced stats Player of the Month for November 2014 is Tom Wilson

Willy_2

Photo by Amanda Bowen, RRBG Photography

All stats from War on Ice

The Caps need more from Jason Chimera

Chimmer

Photo by Amanda Bowen, RRBG Photography

Jason Chimera hasn’t been good this season. Yet, while more effective players have been scratched, Chimera has suited up for every game and averaged more time on ice than all but five of the fifteen forwards to have suited up.

Let’s start by looking at Chimera’s offensive production. Since this season is only about 1/4 of the way over, we’ll look at his offensive production per 60 minutes of ice time so we can accurately compare Chimera’s production this season to previous seasons. Chimera’s first full season with the Caps was 2010-11, so that’s as far back as I’ve gone.

chimeraproduction

As you can see, Chimera’s offensive production has declined drastically this season.

A large drop in this production comes from a drop in assists per 60 minutes of play. Perhaps Chimera’s teammate simply aren’t putting pucks in the net so far this season and, as a result, his assists/60 are down.

chimera shooting%

The Caps are shooting 7.62% with Chimera on the ice this season. This is down from 9.92% last season, but is still the second highest % during Chimera’s time in a Caps uniform. So, it is not that he and his teammates have simply gone cold. Bad luck is not the reason Chimera’s production has declined this season.

Next, we’ll look at Chimera’s possession numbers. For this, I am using Caps shot attempts when Chimera is on the ice vs. when he’s off the ice, which are called relative shot attempts (relative Corsi) and expressed as a percentage. For example, 0% means the Caps see the same amount of overall shot attempts when Chimera is on the ice vs. when he’s off. a +10% means the Caps see a 10% improvement in overall shot attempts when he’s on the ice, -10% a 10% decrease and so on.

chimera possession

Uh-oh. Chimera’s possession has fallen off a cliff this season. The Caps are seeing a 6.89% decrease in shot attempts with Chimera on the ice vs. when he’s off, which is not only by far his worst showing since coming to the Caps, but the worst of his career.

A fair point to raise about Chimera’s possession and production numbers is that he is often deployed as a checking line winger, meaning he is asked to be on the ice for a lot of defensive zone faceoffs. Here’s a look at Chimera’s zone start% (ZS%), which is the % of shifts he starts in the offensive zone.

 chimera zone starts

Chimera faced tougher zone starts last season and similar zone starts the season before that. So, it doesn’t appear as if there is a sudden change in deployment that can explain Chimera’s struggles.

Jason Chimera simply isn’t playing well this season. His production is down, as are his possession numbers. Bad luck and deployment don’t explain the decreases. The Caps need more from Jason Chimera or else he should be in the press box on a regular basis.

All stats from War on Ice

Caps vs. Islanders #fancystats recap

The Caps beat the Islanders, 5-2. The Caps won the 5-on-5 shot attempt battle, 63-55. The Isles are a very good possession team, so this is impressive.

5-on-5 shot attempt chart:

capsisles2

-Joel Ward led the Caps with a +10 on-ice shot attempt differential

-Tom Wilson had the worst shot attempt differential at -8. He was +1 after the first period.

-John Carlson was on the ice for the most Caps shot attempts (25)

-Brooks Orpik was on the ice for the most shot attempts against (26)

-Brooks Orpik faced the toughest zone starts, starting just 14.29% of shifts in the offensive zone

-Joel Ward faced the easiest zone starts, starting 57.14% of shifts in the offensive zone

-Evgeny Kuznetsov, promoted to the second line tonight, was a +5 in on-ice shot attempts. For what it’s worth, Andre Burakovsky was also a +5

-Nate Schmidt, possession monster, update: ZS%, +4 in shot attempts

Three Caps Numbers: Thanksgiving Episode

To fit the spirit of the holiday, this episode of Three Caps Numbers takes a look at numbers we should be thankful for. Thanks for reading. Have a great holiday weekend.

Holts_1

Photo by Amanda Bowen, RRBG Photography

2.86%

This is the Caps 5-on-5 shooting% over the past 2 weeks, the lowest in the NHL. Why should we be thankful for this? Because goals in bunches are coming. This low of a shooting% is not sustainable, it simply cannot and will not continue. Only 2 other teams, San Jose and Edmonton, are below 5.16% over the same period of time. The goals are coming, I promise.

93.75%

Braden Holtby’s 5-on-5 save% over the past two weeks, which is good for fourth among the 16 goalies to have appeared 4 or more games over that time. Holtby has had a 91.4% or better save% in the past 7 games, with only one of those games (NYI) bein below 92.3%. Holtby is giving this team a chance to win, now they just need to score some 5-on-5 goals to support him.

+7.35%

In November, the Caps have seen a 7.35% improvement in shot attempts with Tom Wilson on the ice as opposed to when he’s off, tops on the team. While I’m still not convinced having him on the top line is optimal for this lineup, they certainly have been driving possession, particularly in the time since he returned from injury. The Caps are shooting 3.8% with Wilson on the ice this month, so look for him to be on the ice for some goals very soon.

 

 

Caps vs. Islanders #fancystats recap

The Caps lost to the Islanders in OT, 3-2. The Caps the 5-on-5 shot attempt battle, 57-38. That’s not good at all.

5-on-5 shot attempt chart:

islesfinal

-Tom Wilson led the Caps with a +4 on-ice shot attempt differential. Only two other players weren’t in the negative, Jack Hillen and Alex Ovechkin were even 0

-Troy Brouwer had the worst shot attempt differential at -14.

-Tom Wilson was on the ice for the most Caps shot attempts (20).

-Karl Alzner was on the ice for the most shot attempts against (23).

-Eric Fehr faced the toughest zone starts, starting 45.45% of shifts in the offensive zone

-Andre Burakovsky faced the easiest zone starts, starting 100% of shifts in the offensive zone. He also appeared to be benched for the last 10 minutes or so of regulation

-Nate Schmidt, possession monster, update: 87.5% ZS, -4 in shot attempts

Caps vs. Sabres #fancystats recap

The Caps lost to the FREAKING SABRES, 2-1. The Caps the 5-on-5 shot attempt battle, 67-39, which is really good. They essentially got Halak’d tonight. Seriously, look at the shot attempt chart.

5-on-5 shot attempt chart:

sabresfinal

 -If that isn’t enough #suck for you, the very fancy Mike Green got hurt tonight and didn’t return.

-Tom Wilson led the Caps with a FREAKING +26 on-ice shot attempt differential

-Jason Chimera and Joel Ward had the worst shot attempt differential at -3, somehow managing to lose the shot-attempt battle when they were on the ice. Impressive.

-Tom Wilson was on the ice for the most Caps shot attempts (34).

-John Carlson was on the ice for the most shot attempts against (18). But he was a +15 for the game.

-Ward and Chimera faced the toughest zone starts, starting just 27.77% of shifts in the offensive zone, which can partially explain their shot attempt differential. Bot come on, it’s the FREAKING SABRES.

-Wilson and Alex Ovechkin faced the easiest zone starts, starting 84.62% of shifts in the offensive zone

-Nate Schmidt, possession monster, update: Started 61,54 of shifts in the offensive zone, an even 0 in on-ice shot attempts

Caps vs. Avalanche #fancystats recap

The Caps the Avalanche, 3-2 and are now 9-7-3. The 5-on-5 shot attempt battle ended tied, 46-46. The Abs are a weak possession team but absolutely owned the puck in the third to go 50% in the Corsis. The caps got the win but, in the long term, they will need better possession numbers against weak possession teams.

5-on-5 shot attempt chart:

avalanche

-Tom Wilson, Nick Backstrom, and John Carlson led the Caps with a +6 on-ice shot attempt differential

-Nate Schmidt had the worst shot attempt differential at -14.

-John Carlson was on the ice for the most Caps shot attempts (22).

-Jay Beagle and Nate Schmidt were on the ice for the most shot attempts against (18).

-The 4th line (Kuznetsov, Latta, and Fehr) faced the easiest zone starts, starting 100% of shifts in the offensive zone

-The first line (Backstrom, Ovechkin, and Wilson faced the toughest zone starts, starting 58.33 % of shifts in the offensive zone. This is the second straight game that line has faced the toughest zone starts.

-Nate Schmidt, possession monster, update: 75% ZS, -14 in shot attempts. Tough night. He was directly involved in both Avs goals, too.

All stats from War-on-ice.com

Three Caps Numbers: Episode Three

Editor’s Note: This is a new column in which we will look at 3 Caps-related numbers or stats with a brief commentary on each number. As always, if you have questions or feedback, feel free to let us know in the comment or on Twitter. Thanks for reading.

Washington Capitals v Detroit Red Wings

Photo from NHL.com

Read the rest of this entry

Caps vs. Coyotes #fancystats recap

The Caps beat the Coyotes, 2-1 and are now 8-7-3. The Caps lost the 5-on-5 shot attempt battle, 29-32.

5-on-5 shot attempt chart:

coyotoesshotchart

 

-Troy Brouwer led the Caps with a +7 on-ice shot attempt differential

-Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson had the worst shot attempt differential at -8

-Brooks Orpik and John Carlson were on the ice for the most Caps shot attempts (15).

-John Carlson was on the ice for the most shot attempts against (17).

-Wilson faced the toughest zone starts, starting just 16.67% of shifts in the offensive zone. A further note on zone starts: It was just one game, so maybe an aberration, but what the heck is up with the first line deployment? Toughest zone starts on the team. Wilson at 16.67%, Ovi 28.57%, Backstrom 33.33%. No one else was below 57.14%. 8 Caps players were 80%+ zone starts. I don’t get that at all.

-Andre Burakovsky, Troy Brouwer, and Marcus Johansson faced the easiest zone starts, starting 87.50% of shifts in the offensive zone

-Nate Schmidt, possession monster, update:  80% of shifts started in the offensive zone, even 0 in shot attempt differential.

Caps vs. Blues #fancystats recap

The Caps lost to the Blues 3-1 4-1 and now have a record of 7-7-3. Here’s a look at some #fancystats from the game. First the 5-on-5 shot attempt chart, followed by some more 5-on-5 numbers.

blueschart

-The Caps lost the shot attempt battle, 49-44.

-Mike Green had the best on-ice shot attempt differential at +9

-Brooks Orpik had the worst shot attempt differential at -12.

-Mike Green was on the ice for the most Caps shot attempts (19).

-Brooks Orpik was on the ice for the most shot attempts against (22).

-Nick Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin had the easiest zone starts, starting 88.89% of their shifts in the offensive zone.

-Eric Fehr had the toughest zone starts, starting 25% of his shifts in the offensive zone.

 

 

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

%d bloggers like this: